Sell and Go Away In May
Sell and Go Away In May
Sell and Go Away In May? It could be happening. There were actually some bullish signs on the first few days of May, but on the hindsight, it appears to be a mjor sucker punch now. I am turning bearish. So, what’s the next move? Catch us at http://www.facebook.com/timidtrader for daily market snippets and discussions. Remember, sell and go away in May.
Crucial week ahead for Stock Market
Crucial week ahead for Stock Market
It is a crucial week ahead for stock market. It had been a ding-dong battle between the Bulls and Bears reacting to good corporate results and bad Spanish bond issues. For the Singapore Straits Times Index, it is on the brink of a breakout (up or down?).
- sti
On Friday, STI closed below 3000. Not a pretty sign for the bull. It will have to jump above 3000 on Monday for the bull to re-capture any initiatives. From it has to charged towards 3030 to forma bullish price formation before attempting a breakout. If STI STILL stay below 3000 by the end of Monday, Sell-And-Go-Away-In-May could start as early as late April. That is why I felt that tomorrow (23/4) is gonna be a really crucial week ahead for stock market (Join me at http://www.facebook.com/timidtrader to track the daily market development) .
Bull is ambushed by the Bear
Bull is ambushed by the Bear
I was just feeling bullish yesterday, and suddenly I get a feeling that the bull is ambushed by the bear. STI started the day brightly by gapping up near the 3030 mark. On yesterday blog, I mentioned the need to break 3030 in order for bull to continue its momentum towards 3070. However, after an hour in trading, STI lost steam. At that point of time I quickly did a fast snippet and post the following onto http://www.facebook.com/timidtrader .
- Triple top
The writing was on the wall. 3 attempts to break 3030 all failed. I got pretty scared with my long positions at that point of time when i saw that huge gap to be filled. Quickly cleared them at breakeven price, though lost out on commission, but by and large the damage was pretty well controlled.
Selldown
Although the day’s drop of -20 does not appear very significant, we have to note that STI actually opened at +19. From +19 till -20, it’s almost a -40 day range. Definitely starting to feel bearish. However vol is not very high yet. Tomorrow will be very crucial.
Bull is ambushed by the Bear – STI 2990
Today STI managed to find support at 2990.
STI supported at 2990
While I was not surprised by the drop to cover the 2990 gap, the speed which it came down was too fast too furious for me to enter any short position. Tomorrow candlestick will define the market for the rest of the week.
Candlestick
The above are 3 probable candlestick that may be formed by tomorrow closing. The 1st one would be a white candle that push STI up again. It means bull is not giving up a fight, but without breaking 3030, I would not enter any long here. The 2nd one would be a “star” which implies STI starts to regain today’s lost ground by moving up but by the end of the day, it is still being pushed down to the 2990 region (note: if it pushes down below 2990 before closing, its definitely weak.) Here we can start to short. The 3rd candlestick implies STI will continue its slump without any retracement at all. Again, breaching 2990 means opportunity to short. As this could signify a broad market pullback, most counters will drop at the same time. Banks like UOB and OCBC look particularly weak, while the commods and shipping, as usual, lead rise and drop.
The bull is ambushed by the bear today, is it going to fight back tomorrow, stay tune to our daily snippets at http://www.facebook.com/timidtrader for updates.
Bullish Week Ahead In The Stock Market
Bullish Week Ahead In The Stock Market
We could be having a bullish week ahead in the stock market. A report on a 30% increase in NODX (non oil direct xport) could be the ingredient Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) needs to kick start the week. At the same time, Dow Jones had also stablised above 13,000, and S&P had also cleared 1,400. As long as there is no major influencing factors that send them plunging down below those levels again, I think we are going to have another leg of rally. But trading is tricky nowsaday because we are always flushed with good and bad news at the same time. So it’s dependent on what news the market intend to absorb. But that’s what trading is all about – risk. There is no absoluteness in it. Trade small and stay strictly to stop loss is the way to go. Yeah, I know its easy to say but difficult to execute at times. Till date, I am still learning to stay timid at times! haha…how ironic.
Bullish Week Ahead In The Stock Market – Singapore Straits Times Index
Everything was beautiful on last Friday until Mr Jardine decide to collapse at the closing. It brings a black candle to STI to make it looks weak.
STI
When the bell goes off on Monday morning 9 am, 2 things will happen. Market gaps up on good news in NODX or market “follows the chart”. Based on the chart, STI actually has immediate weakness. It actually has potential to fall another 15-18 points. Good or bad thing? It would be good to me because I will be waiting at 2990 to buy. 2990 is a decently strong support with both the trend line and moving average as support. From 2990 it could move up to test 3030 again. From there, if STI still cannot break 3030 on the 3rd attempt, then bear will take over. But at least if I buy at 2990, and the time it reaches 3030 again, I would have a good buffer in case STI starts to slump from there. But what happens if it can clear 3030?
- Clearing 3030
Clearing 3030 means that STI could potentially hit 3070 by this week. It might even go higher, but at least at 3070, a minor resistance, it will halt for a while.
Bullish Week Ahead In The Stock Market – Midas , Ezra
Midas
For Midas, the equation is pretty straight forward. It is looking to break out of a consolidation. It probably can if STI breaks above 3030. First hurdle to clear is 0.415, and aiming at previous high of 0.43. I am vested at 0.395. With my cut loss at 0.38 and profit target at 0.43, I have a decent risk-reward at 1 : 2.3.
- Ezra
Now, Ezra is interesting. I was saying I m going to fish bottom. So where is the bottom? POssibly at 1.08 where the 200 MA offers a good support. Ezra closed at 1.12 on Friday. Question is, can it fall another 4 cents? Remember the 2 possible scenario when STI opens on Monday? If it drops another 15-18 points, Ezra dropping 4 cents is plausible. But if STI jump up at the open, then wait. Wait for Ezra to break the downtrend line at 1.15 before entering. The picture above shows my “ideal” way of trading Ezra. That is why if STI opens red tomorrow morning, don’t be alarmed. It could spell opportunity. 
Besides these 2 counters, there are many many others which i can’t screen them through at one go. But whether STI can break 3030 will be the crux. If it does, we can be expecting a bullish week ahead in the stock market.
Be Careful in the Stock Market
Be Careful in the Stock Market
This week we have to be careful in the stock market. STI has start to waver a little last week. It’s probably going to be a week with sudden ups and downs as the market is starting to consolidate from its recent bull run. Primary counters like Jardine C&C, Genting, Wilmar, NOL and a few others have started to show weakness. Banks and property counters are still holding up while the penny counters are fading away. Each and every counters are probably going to go up and down to consolidate in their own respective manners, thus there are days where we can witness some counters still remaining strong while some are sliding. This week is not like the previous few weeks where we saw broad market rally. While its hard to buy now, STI is not that weak yet to short. Probably a good week to rest, clear some positions, hold more cash and wait for a clearer picture to prevail. Stay cool this week, stay aside, and be careful in the stock market.
The Bull is still Pushing
The Bull is still Pushing
The bull is still pushing up the stock market. Last week, STI managed to break the psychological 3,000 mark and closed just above it by the end of the week at 3000.59 . This could provide the impetus for the bull to march on further. Aided by news from China which is reducing its bank reserve ratio, market could use this reason for a move. However, dark clouds hang around with rising tension from the Middle East with the Iran threatening oil sales and Israel taking a hard stance against the former. So, in times like this, which news should we react on? I suggest we react to the chart !
The Bull is still Pushing – Banks and Shipping
One of the reason I m still bullish is because the banks, cornerstone of STI, are still looking strong.
3 Banks
We can see that DBS has actually taken a lead into moving up. OCBC and UOB could follow suit. Buying OCBC or UOB? For some of us, the banks stocks may be a tad too expensive. Never mind, let’s see if there are similiar setups.
YangZiJiang
It appears to me YangZiJiang has a bullish flag similiar to the banks as well. A possible 5-7 cents move in the near near term? Let’s look at Cosco.
- Cosco
Now, we can see that Cosco’s setup is similiar to the banks as well as YangZiJiang. It, too, has a potential 7 cents move upward move in the near term. But given a choice between YZJ and Cosco, I would choose Cosco. The reason lies in its potential. From the chart, we can see that besides the bullish flag, Cosco is getting “squeezed” in between the 200 MA and 10 MA. If Vol flows in to buy and cause a powerful breakout, it can easily surpass my 7 cents target.
The Bull is still Pushing – Last leg of the rally?
While I think the current mood is still bullish, I am cautious that we may be in the last leg of the current rally before a retracement. U may notice I used a lot of immediate / short term phrases above because in times like this where market may be hitting a limit, its good to aim for short term targets and take partial profit along the way. We are close to the end of Feb. If this week is still a bull’s week, that would mark 2 consecutive months of upwards move. March could see some drops. With the earnings reporting season ending, coupled with some bleak news from Europe and Middle East, market could head down when it is ready to “absorb” bad news. In the mean time, STI could still push to 3030, and perhaps a final burst of fire till the 3060 region. The bull is still pushing up the stock market, for now.
The Raging Bull
The Raging Bull
The raging bull looks like pushing on. After good job data from US last Friday, the Singapore Straits Times Index STI looks set to push up further this week.
- A Double Bottomed STI
STI had formed a bullish double bottom. The 2900 region was its neckline resistance, that’s why for the past week, it had been hovering around there. I was expecting (and hoping) for a retracement till 2840 in order to get some good entry prices but the market bullishness mean it simply trend sideway (waiting for the Moving Average) to catch up. From the chart, the probability of it covering the gap at 3000 is pretty high. It could offer some pyschological resistance at that level as well. That would be my immediate target for STI.
The Raging Bull – Noble, Genting, Cosco and TigerAir
In a bullish scenario, profiting from longing blue chips and main plays are not difficult. But we still like to make money and learn why we make money at the same time, don’t we? As I look through the charts, there are so many “buyable” counters. In the end, I shortlisted a few here. Some of the criterions, besides TA conditions itself, is that the counters I chose are those that had been badly bashed down during the Aug selldown. I think they might recover fast as well.
Cosco
I think the moment Cosco breaks 1.20, it would very quickly be heading to its 200 MA which is at the 1.35 region(when STI = 3000?). NOL and Yangzijiang had moved quite a bit, I considered Cosco the slowest among the 3, hence it has the potential to play catch up as well.
- Noble
In a bull market, u cannot ignore the commodity. They rise fast (of course fall fast in a bear market as well). The gap down from 1.60 to 1.20 in Nov was quite tremendous. However, with Noble poised to complete a bullish Cup-and-Handle formation, I think it could be going back to 1.60 (when STI = 3000?)to cover that gap. That region happens to be its 200 MA and a neckline resistance level as well. To be frank, 1 week ago I favoured Indoagri more, but since the latter had been up quite a bit recently, I will opt for Noble now.
- Genting
I considered Genting 1 of the slowest to move. The double downward trend line resistance could be the cause. But whatever it is, it looks set to break both of them. The consolidation stage for the past week is pretty similiar to Cosco’s and Noble’s ; forming bullish price formation. ANd like the previous two, Genting could be heading to its 200 MA level which is at the 1.75 region (when STI = 3000?).
- TigerAir
I understand recent report by TigerAir had not been really encouraging as they are in red. However, I always believe in what the price tells me. It is bullish. Maybe market had priced in the bad result, and maybe that’s why it is moving slower than the others? But nevertheless it does show signs of reversing its fortune, in stock price. 
It looks like breaking out of its inverse head and shoulder formation. Price to break tomorrow (Monday) : 0.735. Next minor resistance at 0.78, then till 200 MA which is 0.85 (when STI = 3000?)
The Raging Bull – Still can buy?
Some of us might feel that the market had run quite a lot, and may feel uneasy to enter. I think from the chart, signs are quite obvious that the market is running up. Not very often we get this kind of signal. One of the way is to control our size? Don’t miss out this buying opportunity. If you are not convinced, buy small. We might be hold back by a possible scenario that if the market suddenly turn down, we may lost money. Well, that’s the risk of stock market; unforseeable events (Iran war maybe?). But if we keep predicting unforseeable events to happen or take place, we might lost the opportunity. If the market suddenly turn down, all we need to do is to quickly cut loss and escape. Oh..before i forget, penny stocks, they are running too. Most of them had run up at least 1 wave already. I made a few call from the Timid Trader Facebook page last 2 weeks. Follow me on a daily basis on the facebook page to catch “live” market updates and commentary at http://www.facebook.com/timidtrader . Personally, I think RenewableEnergy and Sunpower has still some rooms to run. But cautious on your size, especially for contra players. “Can Make, Got Make Profit” good enough. This penny stocks are cheap, so u can easily snap up quite a size. Be careful. In the meantime, the raging bull looks set to push forward.
Gong Xi Fa Cai & Happy Chinese New Year
Dear All,
Wishing you a very happy & prosperous year of dragon !
Gong Xi Fa Cai & Have A Marvelous Chinese New Year!
Enjoy Your Holidays
Huat Ah !!!!
Get the latest market update at A Timid Trader Facebook page
Hi everyone,
I hope everyone has click to join A Timid Trader Facebook page where u get access to daily market snippets. This will help us to get a glimpse of where the market might be heading. Compared to the blog posting where we summarise weekly movement and look at forseeable trend, the daily updates in Facebook can let us gain first hand experience on the struggle between the Bulls and the Bears.
So join us at A Timid Trader Facebook page now ! See You there.
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Kevin
Forex Trading 101: What and How to Trade
Forex Trading 101: What and How to Trade
If you’ve just moved from the equity to the currency market, generally referred to as Forex, there are several tips, tricks and ‘tools of the trade’ that you might want to have a good grasp on before you set out. First off, you need to understand the basic differences between the two markets. Essentially, the Forex trading is dominated not by companies selling products and services, but by national and commercial banks, as well as hedge funds and multi-national corporations. Primers on the market, irrespective of their trading background, will probably feel daunted by this situation at first, since going head to head with such massive entities might seem ill-suited for individual investors.
Forex Trading As An Individual Trader
While there is some truth to this assertion, the presence of major organizations on a forex trading market can actually come to benefit an individual trader. Forex operates every day for twenty-four hours. Prior to the recession, in 2007, over $3 trillion were traded on a daily basis on the Forex market. What to Trade Since basically all currencies are traded, constantly bought and purchased in Forex, the market is highly dynamic, with operations going round the clock. To this end, it has developed a very variegated gamut of instruments available for trading.
You can trade in forwards, or forward contracts, in which the purchase price is established at the time the transaction is initiated, even though you do not receive the commodity per se until after the contract has been completed. Similar to forwards are futures, which means that you, as the buyer, are buying something that will be delivered to you on the future. You are essentially hedging on the intrinsic value and quality of the asset and speculating on its future price.
Betting on spreads is also a popular Forex tool, and you can also become involved in the spot market, where you must trade minimum amounts of 100,000 units.
Using An Online Currency Converter For Forex Trading
Use an online currency converter to check current rates and note that currencies are always traded in twos, which means you always need to check both exchange rates to obtain a profit. Specifically, Forex trading requires a mode of thinking that is slightly different from what you may already be used to from the equity market. Normally, when one of the currencies you are trading increases its value and you go ahead and buy it, you will also need to perform a second operation, in order to make sure you still make some profit. The second operation is to sell the second currency you are trading in.
This type of trading is called open trade or open position. Also, the notion of margin is different from the equity market. For instance, if you’re investing in real estate, you will think of margin as an installment, a warrant or down-payment on a piece of property that you will buy in the future. In Forex trading, however, which is a highly leveraged market, margins run very high and they are regarded as an insurance system of sorts, which will cover any future debt you might run into during your currency trading operations.
